Originally written on 2/28/2023

The outcomes of wars are notoriously tricky to predict. Prussian general and military theorist, Carl von Clausewitz wrote two centuries ago, “In the whole range of human activities, war most closely resembles a game of cards.”  

How does the Russo-Ukraninan conflict affect America and NATO? The good news is that Ukraine did not collapse, the war did not expand to other parts of Eastern Europe, nor have nuclear weapons been detonated. Unfortunately, hundreds of thousands of soldiers and civilians have died, millions of refugees fled, and the region has suffered billions of dollars of property damage. 

Last year, this column predicted that Western economic sanctions on Russia would not be very effective in stopping the mayhem. Unfortunately, our prediction was correct. Russia is a large country that can substitute domestic production for many imported goods, and it has also increased its trade with China, India, and Iran. The IMF now estimates the Russian domestic economy will grow in 2023 despite the continuing war and international sanctions. 

Perhaps the most depressing aspect of the war is there is no end in sight. Public opinion polls in Russia indicate that 75% of the Russian population supports the war. However, this data should be taken with a grain of salt since Russians who express anti-war feelings are reported to the police and are often arrested. At a minimum, Putin seems in control of Russia. 

The Ukrainian government insists that the pre-2014 borders be restored, that Russians be tried for war crimes, and Russia be forced to pay reparations to Ukraine. One policy analyst suggests the odds of any Russian government, even without Putin, being willing to accept such conditions are essentially nil. Although most experts don’t think Russia will resort to nuclear weapons, it is hard to see how the Ukrainian demands can be accomplished short of an actual invasion of Russia, which would surely increase the odds of Russia following up on its nuclear blackmail. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksii Danilov’s brave and bold prediction that “our tanks will be on Red Square…” is hardly reassuring.  

Although the United States has a spotty record of supporting its allies and domestic USA support for Ukraine may be waning, the USA’s aid to Ukraine accounts for less than 6% of our defense budget. With no USA troops in action, that is a price Americans might pay, depending on what cards turn up.