Many are anxious because they believe the American middle class is declining. A vintage mid-20th century photo of a snappy-looking thirty-something heterosexual couple standing in front of their cottage with a new Ford in the driveway encapsulates a nostalgic view of middle-class life now lost. Two darling children, a girl in a fluffy dress and a young boy on a tricycle, adorned the scene. All this was possible in the good old days with a public high-school education and a single-earner household.  

A closer look at the picture reveals that the house was small and boxy, with no garage. The new Ford did not have power windows or air conditioning. In 1960, U.S. consumers spent an average of 17.0 percent of their disposable personal income (DPI) on food. By 2019, this share had shrunk to 9.5 percent. 

There are numerous conceptions of the middle class. Some describe the middle class as a lifestyle and a set of values, aspirations, habits, and customs. Others have defined the middle class as the middle third of household income. If the middle class is those with the middle third of household income, then it is logically impossible for there to be a decline in the middle class. Others think of fixed real income thresholds. Perhaps, when thinking of middle-class decline, Professor Sen’s admonishment that “it is better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong” comes to mind.  

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey provides insight into this issue. The Census Bureau has collected income data on U.S. Households every year since 1967. They use this data to estimate the percentage of households in various income ranges and years. They adjust these dollar incomes for inflation to reflect real purchasing power.  

Using 2022 constant dollars, in 1967, 48.2% of households earned less than $50k per year, 38.7% earned more than $50k but less than $100k, and 13.1% earned more than $100k. In 2022, 33.9% of households earned less than $50k per year, 28.5% earned more than $50k but less than $100k, and 37.5% earned more than $100k.  

So between 1967 and 2022, the percentage of households earning between $50k-100k did indeed decline, as did the percentage of households earning less than $50k. That is because the percentage of households earning more than $100k rose from fewer than one in seven to over one in three! From this perspective, perhaps the middle-class decline is not the social crisis some imagine.