{"id":177,"date":"2026-05-04T10:20:17","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T14:20:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/people.bsu.edu\/econbriefs\/?p=177"},"modified":"2026-05-04T10:20:17","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T14:20:17","slug":"feds-dilemma-cooling-inflation-vs-risking-a-slowdown-by-dr-cecil-bohanon-and-dr-john-horowitz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/people.bsu.edu\/econbriefs\/2026\/05\/04\/feds-dilemma-cooling-inflation-vs-risking-a-slowdown-by-dr-cecil-bohanon-and-dr-john-horowitz\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019s Dilemma: Cooling Inflation vs. Risking a Slowdown\u2013 by Dr. Cecil Bohanon and Dr. John Horowitz"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The recent inflation data is mildly encouraging. The year-on-year inflation\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.htm#:~:text=For%20the%20month%2C%20the%20index%20increased%200.2%20percent%20on%20a,:30%20a.m.%20(ET).\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">rate\u00a0was\u00a02.4% in\u00a0May<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, essentially unchanged from\u00a0April\u00a0(2.3%)\u00a0and\u00a0March\u00a0(2.4%), but well below the rates of 3.0% and 2.8% in\u00a0January and February,<\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">\u00a0respectively<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. The trend is down, which is reassuring.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559731&quot;:720}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/T5YIE\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">calculates the five-year expected inflation rate by comparing yields on 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities with those on 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. Since early May, this measure has stayed within a narrow range of 2.30% to 2.44%. After the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, it dipped to 2.28%, suggesting that investors believe inflation will continue to ease.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559731&quot;:720}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">So, should the Federal Reserve start cutting interest rates?\u00a0It\u2019s a tough decision. We agree with our Texas Tech colleague Professor Alex Salter: \u201c<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/thedailyeconomy.org\/article\/two-cheers-and-a-warning-for-mays-inflation-slowdown\/?fbclid=IwY2xjawK3tSdleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFlYW5KUUJHOUJnU20wV3BiAR4-07srciesaIgtCThdQ_LLVn9FPuleVmVwa1Y2p1TCZ2Fx-Ry4-UlypXqHxw_aem_0NgH3LIniTZeVrU_yvQv0w\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">I would not want to be a central banker right now.\u201d<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559731&quot;:720}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Federal Reserve lowers interest rates by\u00a0reducing\u00a0the\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/economy-at-a-glance-policy-rate.htm#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20federal%20funds,rate%20through%20monetary%20policy%20decisions.\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Federal Funds Rate<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">,\u00a0the rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The\u00a0Federal\u00a0Reserve\u00a0has maintained\u00a0the Federal Funds Rate in\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/economy-at-a-glance-policy-rate.htm#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20federal%20funds,rate%20through%20monetary%20policy%20decisions.\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">range\u00a0between\u00a04.25% and 4.50% since December 2024<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;335559731&quot;:720}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In our opinion, the most important policy goal for the Federal Reserve should be to ensure a long-term inflation rate of 2%. The Fed has made this a public target, and failure to deliver on this promise would inflict enormous long-term\u00a0damage on the U.S. and world economy.\u00a0Just as\u00a0doctors advise\u00a0a patient to continue a course of antibiotics even if she is feeling well, a consistent level of expected inflation\u00a0of\u00a0around 2% is essential to\u00a0economic\u00a0health.\u00a0We are\u00a0not quite there yet,\u00a0so\u00a0the Fed needs to finish\u00a0the course, especially as\u00a0tariff policy is likely to boost inflation at some point.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">On the other hand, real interest rates \u2014 the nominal rate (4.25%-4.5%) minus expected inflation (2.3%) \u2014 are relatively high (1.95%-2.2%) and could trigger an economic downturn. Economists estimate that the \u201cnatural\u201d real interest rate \u2014the rate that balances savings and investment without increasing inflation or causing an economic downturn \u2014falls between 0.78% and 1.76%. If the current real rate is above that range, the risk of an economic slowdown increases. If the current real rate is below that range, the\u00a0risk of inflation increases.\u00a0\u00a0So, the Fed has to pick its poison. Lower rates and\u00a0risk-increasing\u00a0inflation. Keep rates steady and risk an economic slowdown and a rising unemployment rate.\u00a0There\u2019s little margin for error and no easy choices.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The recent inflation data is mildly encouraging. The year-on-year inflation\u00a0rate\u00a0was\u00a02.4% in\u00a0May, essentially unchanged from\u00a0April\u00a0(2.3%)\u00a0and\u00a0March\u00a0(2.4%), but well below the rates of 3.0% and 2.8% in\u00a0January and February,\u00a0respectively. The trend is down, which is reassuring.\u00a0 \u00a0The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis\u00a0calculates the five-year expected inflation rate by comparing yields on 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities with [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[93,1621,1620,4,7,94,114,1619,1062,6],"class_list":["post-177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-inflation","tag-cpi","tag-economic-slowdown","tag-expected-inflation","tag-federal-reserve","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-monetary-policy","tag-real-interest-rate","tag-tariffs","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed\u2019s Dilemma: Cooling Inflation vs. Risking a Slowdown\u2013 by Dr. Cecil Bohanon and Dr. John Horowitz - Econ Briefs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/people.bsu.edu\/econbriefs\/2026\/05\/04\/feds-dilemma-cooling-inflation-vs-risking-a-slowdown-by-dr-cecil-bohanon-and-dr-john-horowitz\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed\u2019s Dilemma: Cooling Inflation vs. Risking a Slowdown\u2013 by Dr. Cecil Bohanon and Dr. John Horowitz - Econ Briefs\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The recent inflation data is mildly encouraging. 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