{"id":203,"date":"2026-05-04T11:04:16","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T15:04:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/people.bsu.edu\/econbriefs\/?p=203"},"modified":"2026-05-04T11:04:16","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T15:04:16","slug":"oil-shocks-and-chokepoints-lessons-from-hormuz-by-dr-cecil-bohanon-and-dr-john-horowitz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/people.bsu.edu\/econbriefs\/2026\/05\/04\/oil-shocks-and-chokepoints-lessons-from-hormuz-by-dr-cecil-bohanon-and-dr-john-horowitz\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Shocks and Chokepoints: Lessons from Hormuz\u2013 by Dr. Cecil Bohanon and Dr. John Horowitz"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Bohanon remembers an evening flight into the United Arab Emirates a decade ago.\u00a0Looking out his window,\u00a0he saw the outline of a body of water bordered by land on both sides. The distance between the land\u00a0narrowed in the middle of\u00a0the\u00a0view. On the water, dozens of individual bright lights moved\u00a0slowly, keeping approximately\u00a0even distance from one another and\u00a0clustered around the narrowest point. It dawned on him:\u00a0He was looking at the\u00a0Strait\u00a0of Hormuz.\u00a0Those lights\u00a0were\u00a0tankers\u00a0supplying the world with petroleum. He recalls\u00a0thinking:\u00a0\u201cThis\u00a0is the\u00a0choke point of the world economy. Shut this down,\u00a0world economic crisis.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">That\u00a0crisis\u00a0is\u00a0unfolding now.\u00a0Even after catastrophic losses,\u00a0Iran\u00a0retains\u00a0enough military capacity to\u00a0shut the\u00a0Strait down\u00a0while US\u00a0and Israelis\u00a0leaders\u00a0scramble\u00a0to secure safe passage\u00a0for shipping.\u00a0The vulnerability is well known:\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/iran\/hormuz-minefield\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">roughly\u00a020% of the world&#8217;s\u00a0oil\u00a0supply\u00a0moves\u00a0through<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0the narrow 20-mile\u00a0passage.\u00a0Since February 27th, the day before\u00a0the\u00a0US-Israeli air\u00a0campaign\u00a0began,\u00a0the price of Brent\u00a0crude rose from $72\u00a0per barrel\u00a0to\u00a0$103\u00a0by\u00a0March 16<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">th<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">,\u00a0briefly\u00a0spiking\u00a0to nearly $120\u00a0on\u00a0March\u00a09th.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">We are old enough to remember the 1973 oil crisis. On October 6, 1973, Egypt and Syria launched a large-scale surprise attack on Israel, starting the Yom\u00a0Kippur War.\u00a0Ten days later, the\u00a0Organization of Arab\u00a0Petroleum\u00a0Exporting\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/1973_oil_crisis#:~:text=In%20March%201974%2C%20OAPEC%20lifted,aftermath%20of%20the%20Iranian%20Revolution.\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Countries (OPEC) raised oil prices from $3.01 a barrel to $5.12<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0a barrel,\u00a0an increase in percentage terms\u00a0somewhat\u00a0larger\u00a0than\u00a0the current price spike.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">After\u00a0the Yom Kippur War\u00a0ended, oil prices continued to rise.\u00a0On January 1, 1974,\u00a0OPEC\u00a0and Iran announced\u00a0a new, higher\u00a0price of\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreservehistory.org\/essays\/oil-shock-of-1973-74\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">$11.65 a barrel<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u00a0and\u00a0cut\u00a0production by an amount sufficient to support the price\u00a0hike.\u00a0From pre-war levels, this\u00a0was a\u00a0staggering\u00a0287% increase,\u00a0and\u00a0higher prices\u00a0persisted\u00a0for the next few years.\u00a0If oil were to rise today by the same proportion, a barrel would cost $278.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559731&quot;:720,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The oil shock of 1973\u201374\u00a0is\u00a0widely seen\u00a0as triggering the worst recession since World War\u202fII and introducing the phenomenon\u00a0of stagflation.\u00a0While gasoline price controls were supposed to offset recessionary pressures, they likely exacerbated them.\u202f Although the nations in today\u2019s drama are not aligned as they were\u00a0in\u00a01973, the story is eerily familiar.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bohanon remembers an evening flight into the United Arab Emirates a decade ago.\u00a0Looking out his window,\u00a0he saw the outline of a body of water bordered by land on both sides. The distance between the land\u00a0narrowed in the middle of\u00a0the\u00a0view. On the water, dozens of individual bright lights moved\u00a0slowly, keeping approximately\u00a0even distance from one another and\u00a0clustered [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1278],"tags":[1764,1758,1220,1763,1756,1760,1759,1762,1757,1761],"class_list":["post-203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-and-climate","tag-energy-security","tag-energy-supply","tag-geopolitics","tag-global-economy","tag-oil-markets","tag-opec","tag-price-shocks","tag-stagflation","tag-strait-of-hormuz","tag-yom-kippur-war"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oil Shocks and Chokepoints: Lessons from Hormuz\u2013 by Dr. Cecil Bohanon and Dr. John Horowitz - Econ Briefs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/people.bsu.edu\/econbriefs\/2026\/05\/04\/oil-shocks-and-chokepoints-lessons-from-hormuz-by-dr-cecil-bohanon-and-dr-john-horowitz\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oil Shocks and Chokepoints: Lessons from Hormuz\u2013 by Dr. Cecil Bohanon and Dr. John Horowitz - Econ Briefs\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bohanon remembers an evening flight into the United Arab Emirates a decade ago.\u00a0Looking out his window,\u00a0he saw the outline of a body of water bordered by land on both sides. 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