{"id":60,"date":"2025-05-06T14:49:14","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T18:49:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/people.bsu.edu\/econbriefs\/?p=60"},"modified":"2025-05-22T08:08:45","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T12:08:45","slug":"ukraine-russia-and-the-west-a-war-without-end-by-dr-cecil-bohanon-and-dr-john-horowitz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/people.bsu.edu\/econbriefs\/2025\/05\/06\/ukraine-russia-and-the-west-a-war-without-end-by-dr-cecil-bohanon-and-dr-john-horowitz\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine, Russia, and the West: A War Without End \u2013 by Dr. Cecil Bohanon and Dr. John Horowitz"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Originally written on 2\/28\/2023<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The outcomes of wars are notoriously tricky to predict. Prussian general and military theorist, Carl von Clausewitz wrote two centuries ago, \u201cIn the whole range of human activities, war most closely resembles a game of cards.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">How does the Russo-Ukraninan conflict affect America and NATO? The good news is that Ukraine did not collapse, the war did not expand to other parts of Eastern Europe, nor have nuclear weapons been detonated. Unfortunately, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpost.com\/international\/article-732548\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">hundreds of thousands of soldiers and civilians have died<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"none\">,<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/2022%E2%80%932023_Ukrainian_refugee_crisis\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">millions of refugees fled<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, and the region has suffered billions of dollars of property damage.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559731&quot;:720,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Last year, this column predicted that Western economic sanctions on Russia would not be very effective in stopping the mayhem. Unfortunately, our prediction was correct. Russia is a large country that can substitute domestic production for many imported goods, and it has also increased its trade with China, India, and Iran. The IMF now estimates the Russian domestic economy <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/russian-imports-rebound-as-economy-looks-set-for-growth-\/6946048.html\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">will grow in 2023 despite<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> the continuing war and international sanctions.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Perhaps the most depressing aspect of the war is there is no end in sight. Public opinion polls in Russia indicate that <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/world\/russian-support-for-putins-war-in-ukraine-is-hardening\/ar-AA17P6vI\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">75% of the Russian population<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"none\"> supports the war<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. However, this data should be taken with a grain of salt since <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2023\/02\/24\/1159207691\/what-ukrainians-are-expecting-one-year-after-russia-invaded\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Russians who express anti-war feelings are reported to the police and are often arrested<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. At a minimum, Putin seems in control of Russia.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Ukrainian government insists that the pre-2014 borders be restored, that Russians be tried for war crimes, and Russia be forced to pay reparations to Ukraine. One policy analyst suggests the odds of any Russian government, even without Putin, being willing to accept such conditions <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/world\/how-and-when-the-war-in-ukraine-will-end\/ar-AA17QYuc\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">are essentially nil<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. Although most experts don\u2019t think Russia will resort to nuclear weapons, it is hard to see how the Ukrainian demands can be accomplished short of an actual invasion of Russia, which would surely increase the odds of Russia following up on its nuclear blackmail. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ukranews.com\/en\/news\/916305-ukrainian-tanks-will-be-in-moscow-on-red-square-it-is-fair-danilov\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> Oleksii Danilov\u2019s brave and bold prediction that \u201cour tanks will be on Red Square\u2026\u201d is hardly reassuring.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559731&quot;:720,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Although the United States has a spotty record of supporting its allies and domestic USA support for Ukraine may be waning, the USA\u2019s aid to Ukraine accounts for less than <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/corner\/aid-to-ukraine-is-a-fraction-of-the-u-s-defense-budget\/\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">6% of our defense budget<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\">. With no USA troops in action, that is a price Americans might pay, depending on what cards turn up.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Originally written on 2\/28\/2023 The outcomes of wars are notoriously tricky to predict. Prussian general and military theorist, Carl von Clausewitz wrote two centuries ago, \u201cIn the whole range of human activities, war most closely resembles a game of cards.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0 How does the Russo-Ukraninan conflict affect America and NATO? The good news is that Ukraine [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[202],"tags":[634,220,637,636,640,638,639,204,635,206,221],"class_list":["post-60","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-geopolitics","tag-carl-von-clausewitz","tag-economic-sanctions","tag-imf","tag-nato","tag-oleksii-danilov","tag-public-opinion","tag-putin","tag-russia","tag-russo-ukranian-conflict","tag-ukraine","tag-war"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Ukraine, Russia, and the West: A War Without End \u2013 by Dr. Cecil Bohanon and Dr. John Horowitz - Econ Briefs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/people.bsu.edu\/econbriefs\/2025\/05\/06\/ukraine-russia-and-the-west-a-war-without-end-by-dr-cecil-bohanon-and-dr-john-horowitz\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Ukraine, Russia, and the West: A War Without End \u2013 by Dr. Cecil Bohanon and Dr. John Horowitz - Econ Briefs\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Originally written on 2\/28\/2023 The outcomes of wars are notoriously tricky to predict. 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